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Australian Politics

Poll Sum; 29th June 2016


Poll Sum a few days from the election, by the always wonderful Archie.

Ærchies Archive - Digital Detritus

DDpoll1

poll29h

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Reachtel 9/06, and Essential 15/06 were deleted.

poll29a

Reachtel 23/06, Galaxy 26/06 Newspoll 26/06, Essential 28/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll29bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll29c

2PP History

poll29dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,516,650 Votes

ALP 7,483,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll29daA difference of

0.222% or 33,300 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll29e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

This week’s Essential Poll has the Coalition on a Primary vote of 39%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll29fEssential, Ipsos and…

View original post 240 more words

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Discussion

2 thoughts on “Poll Sum; 29th June 2016

  1. Trish – do these 2PP use 2013 preference flows?

    Like

    Posted by Robert | June 29, 2016, 7:43 pm

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Trish Corry

trishcorry

trishcorry

I love to discuss Australian Politics. My key areas of interest are Welfare, Disadvantage, emotions in the workplace, organisational behaviour, stigma, leadership, women, unionism. I am pro-worker and anti-conservativism/Liberalism. I am a proud member of the Australian Labor Party and you will find my blog posts written from a Laborist / Progressive Slant.

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